DC Advisory, a global investment bank specializing in the middle market and owned by Daiwa, has published the report Global M&A Outlook 2026: Still Searching for Equilibrium, a document that gathers insights on global M&A activity, growth prospects, and the reasons why, despite a 10% decline in company sale and merger processes worldwide, M&A activity is expected to increase by 15% in 2026.
In parallel, the report includes an analysis by Manuel Zulueta, CEO of DC Advisory in Spain. Manuel reviews the activity of 2025 and highlights the most dynamic markets in Spain this year. Below is a summary of the full report and the most relevant conclusions:
1. General review of 2025: What happened globally and in Spain?
- Q1 2025 recorded a 3% increase in M&A activity. Q2 2025 remained stable, while Q3 2025 saw a 14% decline following U.S. tariff policies.
- Regarding Spain, Manuel Zulueta, CEO of DC Advisory, states:
“The evolution has been positive, but gradual. The first quarter marked a strong start, and the second saw a slight slowdown after Liberation Day. In the third quarter, there was a significant rebound that helped recover part of the lost momentum.”
- Among the most dynamic sectors in Spain, Manuel Zulueta notes:
“Healthcare is positioned as one of the most active segments of the year. Technology also stands out, especially IT services and B2B software, which have been the main focus of investor interest.”
2. Corporate M&A activity falls 13%, compared to a slight 5% decline in private equity
- Although both players decreased, private equity is expected to act as a growth vector, as pressure from investors (LPs) to obtain liquidity will lead to greater portfolio rotation and a 15% increase in M&A activity by 2026.
3. The gap between buyers and sellers slows divestments
- In this scenario, private equity firms hold nearly 50,000 companies in their portfolios. Over the past 12 months, they have made around 6,000 investments, but only 2,500 divestments have been completed, reflecting a significant backlog that will need to be addressed.
4. The secondary market as a strategic alternative
- Due to difficulty in reaching target valuations, many funds are turning to continuation vehicles, where investors decide whether to remain in an asset or sell their position.
- These structures accounted for 19% of private equity exit strategies in the first four months of 2025, compared to 12% in the same period of 2024.
5. Outlook: What to expect?
- 2026 is expected to be a year of increased activity, but the market will need to accept more realistic valuations.
- Given the size of the U.S. private equity market and the depth of available capital, the United States is expected to lead much of the recovery.
