For decades, pharmaceutical industry growth was driven by predictable actions: expanding into new geographies, extending product lifecycles, and optimizing commercial strategies. However, this growth model is reaching its limit. Intensifying competition and breakthroughs from nontraditional domains are reshaping the industry. This Viewpoint uncovers where to find future growth: in adjacencies, new technologies, unconventional hubs, and small biotech acquisitions — where opportunities arise faster, earlier, and often from unexpected players.
The pharmaceutical industry is at a structural turning point. For decades, growth came from familiar levers: incremental extensions, geographic expansion, and standard commercialization. These engines once delivered predictable results but now face market saturation, regulatory pressure, and intensifying competition. Once-reliable routes to scale now increasingly generate only marginal returns. In recent years, pharma sales rose by double digits in saturated markets, such as the US and Europe, yet volumes barely moved — evidence that current growth comes from pricing and launches, not expanded demand (see Figure 1).
Meanwhile, the innovation context is shifting: health systems want better outcomes for less cost, patients expect a higher quality of life, and the rules of value creation are changing. Countries are revisiting protection rules and the process of awarding patents.
In the US, multiple forces are widening the field of opportunity, but demand new routes to capture it — routes traditional models struggle to follow:
In established therapeutic areas, companies benefit from strong networks and robust intelligence. Beyond those boundaries, the landscape is harder to track, and incumbents’ visibility into emerging opportunities and competitor moves fades. Breakthroughs in digital therapeutics, advanced modalities, or less familiar geographies often go unnoticed until smaller, faster players have already acted.
The issue of speed is equally pressing. Established business development processes are thorough, with multiple evaluation and governance layers, but these structures respond too slowly to fast-moving opportunities. Conversely, startups and emerging biotechs pivot quickly, secure partnerships early, and capture first-mover advantage. According to Vital Transformation, a healthcare information platform, about 55% of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug approvals between 2011 and 2020 came from small or emerging biotechs (under US $500 million revenue), not traditional pharmaceutical companies.
Many of those assets later move to large pharmaceutical companies via deals to scale manufacturing, navigate regulation, and secure access, but startups still drive most launches — evidence that the locus of innovation has shifted beyond big pharma’s core (i.e., outside established therapeutic areas and familiar modalities, often in newer geographies and software-enabled care models).
Even when promising opportunities are identified, integration is rarely straightforward. Aligning external assets with internal platforms and navigating regulation can rival the science in difficulty. Many innovations stumble not because they lack merit, but because organizations struggle to absorb them effectively. Together, these dynamics highlight why growth cannot come from more of the same. A new mindset is required:
This evolution is less about accessing more science and more about reshaping how companies search for, evaluate, and integrate innovation in the first place (see Figure 2).
The shift in pharma’s growth drivers is challenging the industry’s established playbook. Defending core therapeutic strongholds is giving way to a more complex, fragmented innovation landscape. Rather than riding established assets, companies need to track and interpret a broader set of forces reshaping where and how value is created. Figure 3 shows four macro-trends (explored in more detail below).
The most resilient opportunities still arise from unmet needs, but the scope of those needs is evolving. Beyond treatment gaps, growth is emerging in patient experience and agency, as better-organized patient communities use large language models (LLMs) and richer data to self-educate and coordinate, alongside adherence and quality of life. Therapies that cut side effects or simplify administration can differentiate as much as breakthrough efficacy. For example, a recent global trial found a twice-yearly injectable HIV preventive had far higher patient adherence than a daily pill, with convenient dosing cutting infection risk by 96%, according to a 2024 study by the New England Journal of Medicine and Emory University.
At the same time, unmet economic needs created by strained healthcare budgets are driving demand for breakthroughs that prove cost-effective, deliver value-based outcomes, and improve system efficiency. Grounding growth strategies around economics reduces the risk of chasing science without a viable market and aligns regulators, payers, and patients. Because cutting-edge drugs often carry high per-dose costs, increased spending prompts insurers and governments to encourage generics. This pattern is common across developed economies; for example, Japan targets an 80% generic market share.
Discovery is no longer concentrated in the hands of a few large incumbents. The field now includes startups, specialist biotechs, digital health pioneers, and cross-disciplinary research consortia. This broader ecosystem adds complexity but creates unprecedented collaboration opportunities. Companies that collaborate early gain insight into emerging science, flexible access to talent and ideas, and a chance to shape trajectories before they mature. Importantly, this trend extends beyond Western hubs. Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East are contributing distinctive scientific capabilities and entrepreneurial energy. China is emerging as a second gravitational center to challenge US primacy; in 2024, Chinese biopharma firms struck 94 overseas licensing deals worth a record-high $52 billion. Other countries are also advancing, though at a fraction of China’s scale. These figures show how actively companies are sourcing advances globally from new regions.
Transformation is accelerating. Patent activity in new modalities, experimental trial designs, and early-stage academic breakthroughs are outpacing traditional evaluation cycles. Weak possibilities, such as conference abstracts, preclinical data, and exploratory partnerships, can quickly evolve into competitive realities. AI-augmented tools can detect and flag these signals weeks before traditional reviews. LLMs and machine learning pipelines scan publications, patents, trial registries, and collaboration networks at scale, flagging weak-signal inflections and enabling faster licensing, co-development, or strategic positioning. Overlooking them can mean arriving late to fields others have already shaped. The ability to separate meaningful patterns from noise is now a crucial differentiator. The pace of scientific output is significant: biotechnology patent applications in Europe jumped 46% between 2015 and 2023. Such growth, especially in emerging areas like gene therapy and mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid), shows that firms must continuously monitor quickly churning ideas.
Growth comes from both therapeutic breakthroughs and supportive technologies. Adjacent domains — including advanced drug delivery, AI-powered discovery engines, diagnostics, and digital platforms — are becoming core elements of value creation. These adjacencies bring resilience by diversifying risk beyond single bets and create differentiation by enabling integrated solutions beyond the pill. Combining targeted therapies with companion diagnostics and integrating regulated digital tools for adherence coaching, symptom tracking, and experience sharing creates solutions that are harder to copy and easier for health systems to adopt.
Major pharma companies have invested heavily in AI and digital health; in 2023, a biotech dosed the first Phase II patient with an AI-discovered molecule — a milestone for the field. Yet, as of September 2025, no AI-discovered drug has been approved, and analyses show that progress from early promise to late-stage success has lagged behind expectations. Together, these forces change not only where growth emerges but how it must be captured, requiring systematic practices that translate early insight into decisive action.
Case study — Expanding opportunities in women’s health
Industry observers have found that successful companies adopt a six-step discipline to identify and capture opportunities (see Figure 4). This discipline combines breadth of scanning with depth of evaluation, ensuring decisions are bold yet grounded and reflect a growing recognition that growth no longer comes from intuition or network reach alone, but from structured processes that can handle the scale and complexity of today’s innovation landscape.
Growth journeys begin by addressing unmet needs that are concrete, evidence-based, and backed by demand. These needs may arise at different levels:
The way these needs are identified is changing. Traditional market analyses miss nuances in patient experience and shifting health system expectations and payer priorities.
Companies now lean on real-world evidence, patient-advocacy insights, and health economics to sharpen understanding. Anchoring innovation in unmet needs doesn’t just guide strategy; it aligns stakeholders and lowers the risk of backing solutions without a viable market.
Once needs are clear, scanning beyond familiar territories is next. Core markets are usually well-understood, but blind spots appear when companies move into adjacent technologies or geographies. Leaders now employ structured scanning practices that extend coverage across the worldwide R&D landscape:
Leaders are distinguishing themselves by scanning method. Increasingly, this involves advanced analytics, AI-enabled search tools, and predictive platforms that track weak signals in patents, funding flows, or research output. Using AI-enabled horizon scanning and curated sources (patents, funding flows, conference abstracts) widens coverage without drowning in noise.
Opportunities that pass the first filter are then subject to rigorous evaluation for strategic fit and scientific and commercial feasibility. Core considerations include:
A key element of this step is the growing attention to development design. An early review of clinical development plans, endpoints, and regulatory strategy often determines feasibility and risk as much as the science itself.
One perspective is not sufficient to validate a potential opportunity. Instead, a systematic, cross-functional approach, optionally complemented by dual-domain experts, can avoid overconfidence in purely scientific promise or overestimation of commercial viability. For example, a standing R&D commercial portfolio committee can be rounded out with participation from market access, medical, regulatory, chemistry/manufacturing/controls (CMC), and finance. Value comes from the mix of cross-functional competencies paired with clear, repeatable methods.
High-performing teams consistently:
This cross-functional review process creates a balanced view that strengthens decision-making and reduces the risk of costly missteps. Making assumptions explicit, quantifying uncertainties, and enforcing clear stop/commit gates enable earlier course corrections and more disciplined capital allocation.
Even compelling scientific findings must meet rigorous financial and strategic criteria. Business cases now go beyond topline forecasts to test end-to-end feasibility, focusing on:
The integration of scenario planning into business cases is evolving. Rather than one outcome, teams model short-term revenue accelerators, long-term differentiation plays, or defensive moves to close portfolio gaps to give leaders clearer choices aligned to strategy.
Once validated, companies must decide how best to capture the opportunity. The entry mode — licensing, acquisition, codevelopment, or collaborative models — depends on both the maturity of the innovation and the company’s appetite for risk and control. Each entry path balances control, speed, risk, and investment:
The most successful companies approach this step with strategic intentionality — choosing routes that not only fit the opportunity but also strengthen their transformational position. Increasingly, hybrid approaches are emerging, combining licensing with co-development or blending acquisition with collaboration to balance flexibility and control.
Applied consistently, the six steps shift organizations from opportunistic discovery to readiness by design. Together, they highlight how pharma can move from incremental, opportunistic discovery to a more disciplined and proactive model of growth exploration. The steps demonstrate that capturing next-generation opportunities requires not just new tools, but also new ways of working and thinking that integrate science, business, and strategy. Consistent execution is the real test. The companies that succeed will be able to embed this discipline into everyday practice — transforming how they find, evaluate, and act on innovation (see Figure 5).
Case study — Anticipating opportunities in muscular dystrophy research
Pharma’s next chapter belongs to leaders who convert complexity into clarity — and risk into advantage. They explore new horizons with discipline, quantify uncertainty, and act before opportunities become obvious. Future champions will:
The companies that succeed will not simply adapt to change; they will actively shape the markets of the future.
By Yuliya Pankova, Fabrizio Mineo, Dr. Ulrica Sehlstedt, Philippe Mauchard, Ben van der Schaaf, Giulia Tartaglia
cloud technology
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