Latest economic consensus show GDP growth being hit hard: world GDP could contract by almost 4%, with European economies falling around 7-11%, depending on the country. The impact will be harder on economies either highly dependent on external demand, or with high GDP weight of labor-intensive sectors, like is the case of Spain.
We expect a reduction of the Spanish 2020 GDP in the range of 5%-15% depending on the duration of the lockdown (-10% in our base case scenario). The base case considers that:
- Infections peak in late April, and the quarantine is lifted at the end of May
- The activity begins to go up in August, partially damaged summer season
- Our recovery will be slower than the one observed in China
Download full PDF Overview of the impact on Spanish power sector
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